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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 11 at the 27

Washington Commanders 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(7:45) 2-K.Forbath 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +1.01 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +5.11 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 27, worth -0.58 EP
KICK +1.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.63 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 37, worth -1.61 EP
PUNT +0.36 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model