4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
DET Away

Detroit Lions

HC Jim Caldwell
@
SD Home

San Diego Chargers

HC Mike McCoy
Sunday 2015-09-13 · 16:05 Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.5 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

DET
49.8%
SD
50.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Matthew Stafford (DET): +0.239 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

DET 23
–
SD 25
Projected margin: SD by 2 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

DET

Caraun Reid DT Out Ankle
Larry Warford G Out Ankle
DeAndre Levy LB Doubtful Hip
LaAdrian Waddle T Questionable Elbow
Eric Ebron TE Probable Ankle
Tahir Whitehead LB Probable Elbow

SD

Johnnie Troutman G Out Forearm
Tourek Williams LB Out Foot
Ladarius Green TE Questionable Concussion
Jeremiah Attaochu LB Questionable Hamstring
Craig Mager CB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DET 28
–
SD 33

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:53 TD DET (10:53) 21-A.Abdullah up the middle for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 6 – SD 0
  • Q1 00:27 FG LAC (:27) 2-J.Lambo 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-M.Scifres. DET 7 – SD 3
  • Q2 12:37 TD DET (12:37) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle intended for 13-K.Allen INTERCEPTED by 27-G.Quin at LAC 31. 27-G.Quin for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 13 – SD 3
  • Q2 08:54 TD DET (8:54) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep middle to 85-E.Ebron for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 20 – SD 3
  • Q2 05:07 TD LAC (5:07) (Shotgun) 39-D.Woodhead up the middle for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 21 – SD 9
  • Q3 09:25 FG LAC (9:25) 2-J.Lambo 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-M.Scifres. DET 21 – SD 13
  • Q3 04:09 TD LAC (4:09) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 11-S.Johnson for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 21 – SD 19
  • Q4 11:53 TD LAC (11:53) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle to 89-L.Green for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 21 – SD 26
  • Q4 02:37 TD LAC (2:37) (Shotgun) 39-D.Woodhead up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DET 21 – SD 32
  • Q4 01:09 TD DET (1:09) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 25-T.Riddick for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 27 – SD 33

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 14 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (8:42) 5-M.Scifres punts 58 yards to DET 27, Center-47-M.Windt. 15-G.Tate pushed ob at DET 47 for 20 yards (89-L.Green).

  • Q1 DET 4th & 6 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 24%

    (7:33) 6-S.Martin punts 36 yards to LAC 13, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 12-J.Jones.

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 2 at the 14
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 94%

    (:27) 2-J.Lambo 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-M.Scifres.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 17 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (14:00) 6-S.Martin punts 42 yards to LAC 22, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, out of bounds.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 16 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (11:08) 5-M.Scifres punts 46 yards to DET 40, Center-47-M.Windt. 15-G.Tate to LAC 46 for 14 yards (52-D.Perryman).

  • Q2 DET 4th & 4 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (3:09) 6-S.Martin punts 37 yards to LAC 17, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 12-J.Jones.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 1 at the 7
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.46 EP
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 97%

    (9:25) 2-J.Lambo 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-M.Scifres.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 5 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (:57) 6-S.Martin punts 34 yards to LAC 30, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-57-J.Bynes.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 12 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 43%

    (9:00) 6-S.Martin punts 27 yards to LAC 14, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, out of bounds.