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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Detroit Lions
4th & 12 at the 41
Detroit Lions 21 – Los Angeles Chargers 26
What Actually Happened
(9:00) 6-S.Martin punts 27 yards to LAC 14, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, out of bounds.
The Three Options
GO
-0.25 EP
Model's Pick
-
28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.08 EP
- 72% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 41, worth -1.95 EP
KICK
-0.61 EP
- 43% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
- 57% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT
-0.42 EP
What Happened
- Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.42 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
