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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 6 at the 49

Detroit Lions 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(7:33) 6-S.Martin punts 36 yards to LAC 13, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 12-J.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -0.72 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.81 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.04 EP
KICK -1.86 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.05 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model