Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 5 at the 64

Detroit Lions 21 – Los Angeles Chargers 20

(:57) 6-S.Martin punts 34 yards to LAC 30, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-57-J.Bynes.

The Three Options

GO -1.14 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.91 EP
56% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 64, worth -3.59 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model