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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 4 at the 54

Detroit Lions 21 – Los Angeles Chargers 10

What Actually Happened

(3:09) 6-S.Martin punts 37 yards to LAC 17, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 12-J.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -0.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.46 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 54, worth -2.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model