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Arizona Cardinals

HC Jonathan Gannon
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Dallas Cowboys

HC Brian Schottenheimer
Monday 2025-11-03 · 20:15 AT&T Stadium, Arlington US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.5 O/U 53.5

Win Probability

ARI
45.8%
DAL
54.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DAL offense: +0.177 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • DAL defense: +0.191 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • ARI offense: +0.077 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • ARI on 7 more days rest than DAL
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • Dak Prescott (DAL): +0.118 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

ARI 23
–
DAL 24
Projected margin: DAL by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

ARI

BJ Ojulari LB Out Knee
Kyler Murray QB Questionable Foot
Garrett Williams CB Questionable Knee
Kitan Crawford S Questionable Ankle
Cody Simon LB Questionable Illness
Walter Nolen DT Questionable Calf
Will Johnson CB Questionable Groin

DAL

Donovan Wilson S Out Elbow
Jack Sanborn LB Out Groin
Perrion Winfrey DT Out Back
DeMarvion Overshown LB Out Knee
Shavon Revel Jr. CB Out Knee
Alijah Clark S Out Ribs
Juanyeh Thomas S Questionable Illness
Cooper Beebe C Questionable Ankle
Ajani Cornelius T Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ARI 27
–
DAL 17

Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 03:42 FG ARI (3:42) 38-C.Ryland 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-39-P.O'Donnell. ARI 3 – DAL 0
  • Q2 12:21 TD ARI (12:21) 68-K.Beachum reported in as eligible. 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 18-M.Harrison for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 9 – DAL 0
  • Q2 04:04 TD DAL (4:04) 39-P.O'Donnell punt is BLOCKED by 54-S.Williams, Center-46-A.Brewer, RECOVERED by DAL-94-M.Kneeland at ARI -8. TOUCHDOWN. ARI 10 – DAL 6
  • Q2 00:51 TD ARI (:51) 7-J.Brissett up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 16 – DAL 7
  • Q3 12:53 TD ARI (12:53) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 85-T.McBride for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 23 – DAL 7
  • Q3 07:18 FG DAL (7:18) 17-B.Aubrey 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. ARI 24 – DAL 10
  • Q3 02:35 FG ARI (2:35) 38-C.Ryland 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-39-P.O'Donnell. ARI 27 – DAL 10
  • Q4 10:56 TD DAL (10:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 19-R.Flournoy for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 27 – DAL 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 98%

    (10:37) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott sacked at ARI 11 for -7 yards (10-J.Sweat).

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 5 at the 29
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 84%

    (3:42) 38-C.Ryland 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-39-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 9 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (4:04) 39-P.O'Donnell punt is BLOCKED by 54-S.Williams, Center-46-A.Brewer, RECOVERED by DAL-94-M.Kneeland at ARI -8. TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 8 at the 8
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 98%

    (7:18) 17-B.Aubrey 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 5 at the 16
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 95%

    (2:35) 38-C.Ryland 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-39-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 3 at the 21
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 92%

    (15:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 88-C.Lamb (29-D.Burke) [10-J.Sweat].

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 11 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (12:59) 39-P.O'Donnell punts 47 yards to DAL 32, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin. PENALTY on DAL-21-C.Carson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 32.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 8 at the 36 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.60 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 71%

    (2:35) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short right to 18-M.Harrison.