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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 5 at the 29

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(3:42) 38-C.Ryland 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-39-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +1.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.22 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 29, worth -1.65 EP
KICK +0.68 EP
What Happened
  • 84% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.28 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 39, worth -2.36 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP