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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 9 at the 64

Arizona Cardinals 10 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(4:04) 39-P.O'Donnell punt is BLOCKED by 54-S.Williams, Center-46-A.Brewer, RECOVERED by DAL-94-M.Kneeland at ARI -8. TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -1.36 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.00 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 64, worth -3.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 22, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model