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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 8 at the 8

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Arizona Cardinals 24

What Actually Happened

(7:18) 17-B.Aubrey 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +2.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.77 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 8, worth +0.27 EP
KICK +1.76 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.52 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP