BAL @ BUF — 4th & Data

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Sunday 2025-01-19 · 18:30 New Era Field, Orchard Park US 🌨 Snow Spread -1.5 O/U 51.5

Win Probability

BAL

45.6%

BUF

54.4%

🌨 Snow

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

BAL offense: +0.184 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
BUF offense: +0.252 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
BAL defense: -0.117 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
QB edge to BAL: Josh Allen (BUF) +0.299 vs Lamar Jackson (BAL) +0.395 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

BAL 25

–

BUF 26

Projected margin: BUF by 1 Projected total: 51

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 20

BAL

Zay Flowers WR Doubtful Knee

Deonte Harty WR Questionable Knee

BUF

Ray Davis RB Questionable Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 20 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BAL 25

–

BUF 27

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 10:46 TD BAL (10:46) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 7-R.Bateman for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 6 – BUF 0
Q1 04:46 TD BUF (4:46) 22-R.Davis right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 7 – BUF 6
Q2 08:54 TD BUF (8:54) 17-J.Allen left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 7 – BUF 13
Q2 03:46 FG BAL (3:46) 9-J.Tucker 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. BAL 10 – BUF 14
Q2 00:20 TD BUF (:20) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen right guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 10 – BUF 20
Q3 09:51 FG BAL (9:51) 9-J.Tucker 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. BAL 13 – BUF 21
Q3 01:41 TD BAL (1:41) 22-D.Henry right guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 19 – BUF 21
Q4 12:08 FG BUF (12:08) 2-T.Bass 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. BAL 19 – BUF 24
Q4 03:31 FG BUF (3:31) 2-T.Bass 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. BAL 19 – BUF 27
Q4 01:44 TD BAL (1:44) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep middle to 80-I.Likely for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 25 – BUF 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 BUF 4th & 2 at the 26

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 60% p(FG) 86%

(7:30) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen right guard to BAL 19 for 7 yards (92-N.Madubuike).
Q1 BUF 4th & 17 at the 53

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 29% p(FG) 26%

(:48) 8-S.Martin punts 44 yards to BAL 9, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 18-S.Sims.
Q2 BAL 4th & 8 at the 8

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 35% p(FG) 98%

(3:46) 9-J.Tucker 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
Q3 BUF 4th & 9 at the 74

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 41%

(14:00) 8-S.Martin punts 54 yards to BAL 20, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 18-S.Sims to BAL 36 for 16 yards (26-Ty.Johnson).
Q3 BAL 4th & 12 at the 29

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 31% p(FG) 82%

(9:51) 9-J.Tucker 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
Q3 BUF 4th & 5 at the 52

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 48% p(FG) 28%

(5:30) 8-S.Martin punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback.
Q4 BUF 4th & 8 at the 33

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 38% p(FG) 74%

(12:08) 2-T.Bass 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
Q4 BAL 4th & 1 at the 61

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 74%

(10:10) Direct snap to 89-M.Andrews. 89-M.Andrews up the middle to BAL 41 for 2 yards (43-T.Bernard).
Q4 BUF 4th & 2 at the 2 late-game

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.50 EP

p(convert) 57% p(FG) 99%

(3:31) 2-T.Bass 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.