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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 12 at the 29

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Buffalo Bills 21

What Actually Happened

(9:51) 9-J.Tucker 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +0.50 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.81 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 29, worth -1.45 EP
KICK +0.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 39, worth -2.16 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model