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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 2 at the 26

Buffalo Bills 0 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(7:30) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen right guard to BAL 19 for 7 yards (92-N.Madubuike).

The Three Options

GO +2.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.68 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26, worth -0.55 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
  • 86% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 36, worth -1.51 EP
PUNT +0.35 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model