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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 17 at the 53

Buffalo Bills 7 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(:48) 8-S.Martin punts 44 yards to BAL 9, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 18-S.Sims.

The Three Options

GO -0.88 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.74 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 53, worth -2.73 EP
KICK -1.37 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 15, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model