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PIT Away

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
@
CIN Home

Cincinnati Bengals

HC Zac Taylor
Sunday 2024-12-01 · 13:00 Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati US 🥶 Cold Spread 3.0 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

PIT
37.3%
CIN
62.7%
🥶 Cold

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CIN offense: +0.086 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • CIN defense: +0.083 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • Joe Burrow (CIN): +0.179 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • CIN on 4 more days rest than PIT
  • PIT offense: +0.007 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

PIT 22
–
CIN 24
Projected margin: CIN by 2 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

PIT

Montravius Adams DT Out Knee
Cory Trice CB Out Hamstring
Alex Highsmith LB Doubtful Ankle

CIN

Sheldon Rankins DT Out Illness
Charlie Jones WR Doubtful Groin
Logan Wilson LB Questionable Knee
Orlando Brown T Questionable Fibula

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PIT 44
–
CIN 38

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 36 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:59 TD CIN (11:59) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right intended for 14-G.Pickens INTERCEPTED by 29-C.Taylor-Britt at CIN 49. 29-C.Taylor-Britt for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: PIT-19-C.Austin has returned to the game. PIT 0 – CIN 6
  • Q1 07:47 TD PIT (7:47) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 14-G.Pickens for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 6 – CIN 7
  • Q1 05:04 TD CIN (5:04) 62-M.Lee reported in as eligible. 30-C.Brown up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 7 – CIN 13
  • Q2 15:00 TD PIT (15:00) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep middle to 19-C.Austin for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN [58-J.Ossai]. PIT 13 – CIN 14
  • Q2 09:58 TD CIN (9:58) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 1-J.Chase for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-K.Benton]. PIT 14 – CIN 20
  • Q2 07:23 TD PIT (7:23) (Shotgun) 22-N.Harris left tackle for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 20 – CIN 21
  • Q2 03:36 FG PIT (3:36) 9-C.Boswell 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman. PIT 24 – CIN 21
  • Q2 00:03 FG PIT (:03) 9-C.Boswell 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman. PIT 27 – CIN 21
  • Q3 03:58 FG CIN (3:58) 2-E.McPherson 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow. PIT 27 – CIN 24
  • Q3 00:28 TD PIT (:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 88-P.Freiermuth for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN [90-K.Jenkins]. PIT 33 – CIN 24
  • Q4 11:14 TD PIT (11:14) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow sacked at CIN 20 for -9 yards (51-Ni.Herbig). FUMBLES (51-Ni.Herbig) [51-Ni.Herbig], RECOVERED by PIT-41-P.Wilson at CIN 21. 41-P.Wilson for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 40 – CIN 24
  • Q4 08:42 TD CIN (8:42) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 5-T.Higgins for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 41 – CIN 30
  • Q4 03:56 FG PIT (3:56) 9-C.Boswell 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman. PIT 44 – CIN 31
  • Q4 02:43 TD CIN (2:43) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 80-A.Iosivas for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on PIT-24-J.Porter, Illegal Use of Hands, declined. PIT 44 – CIN 37

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 3 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (13:04) 8-R.Rehkow punts 41 yards to PIT 15, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 19-C.Austin.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 10 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 74%

    (3:36) 9-C.Boswell 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 5 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (2:05) 8-R.Rehkow punts 46 yards to PIT 19, Center-48-C.Adomitis, out of bounds.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 5 at the 23
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 88%

    (11:34) 9-C.Boswell 42 yard field goal is BLOCKED (58-J.Ossai), Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 15 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 91%

    (3:58) 2-E.McPherson 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 6 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 31%

    (12:50) 8-C.Waitman punts 38 yards to CIN 11, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 18-I.Williams.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 12 at the 12 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 96%

    (3:56) 9-C.Boswell 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman.