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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 23

Pittsburgh Steelers 27 – Cincinnati Bengals 21

What Actually Happened

(11:34) 9-C.Boswell 42 yard field goal is BLOCKED (58-J.Ossai), Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO +1.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.74 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 23, worth -1.22 EP
KICK +0.92 EP
What Happened
  • 88% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.30 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 33, worth -1.97 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP