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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 49

Pittsburgh Steelers 34 – Cincinnati Bengals 24

What Actually Happened

(12:50) 8-C.Waitman punts 38 yards to CIN 11, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 18-I.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -0.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.61 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.73 EP
KICK -1.45 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.45 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.75 EP
PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model