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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 15 at the 20

Cincinnati Bengals 21 – Pittsburgh Steelers 27

What Actually Happened

(3:58) 2-E.McPherson 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

The Three Options

GO +1.27 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.80 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 20, worth -0.26 EP
KICK +1.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30, worth -0.88 EP
PUNT +0.47 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model