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Washington Commanders

HC Dan Quinn
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New York Giants

HC Brian Daboll
Sunday 2024-11-03 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear Spread -4.5 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

WAS
72.2%
NYG
27.8%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • WAS offense: +0.220 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • Daniel Jones (NYG): -0.169 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • NYG offense: -0.100 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

WAS 27
–
NYG 17
Projected margin: WAS by 10 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

WAS

Cornelius Lucas T Out Ankle
Brian Robinson RB Questionable Hamstring

NYG

Jamie Gillan P Out Right Hamstring
Greg Joseph K Out Abdomen
Bryce Ford-Wheaton WR Doubtful Achilles
Ty Summers LB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

WAS 27
–
NYG 22

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:07 TD WAS (7:07) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short left to 17-T.McLaurin for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 6 – NYG 0
  • Q2 12:25 TD NYG (12:25) 8-D.Jones pass short right to 85-C.Manhertz for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 7 – NYG 6
  • Q2 06:25 TD WAS (6:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 30-A.Ekeler up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 13 – NYG 7
  • Q2 00:11 TD WAS (:11) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass deep left to 17-T.McLaurin for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 20 – NYG 7
  • Q3 05:31 FG NYG (5:31) 99-J.McAtamney 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-38-M.Haack. WAS 21 – NYG 10
  • Q3 00:36 FG WAS (:36) 3-A.Seibert 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. WAS 24 – NYG 10
  • Q4 09:31 TD NYG (9:31) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 24 – NYG 16
  • Q4 03:49 FG WAS (3:49) 3-A.Seibert 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. WAS 27 – NYG 16
  • Q4 02:54 TD NYG (2:54) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass deep middle to 84-T.Johnson for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN [99-C.Ferrell]. WAS 27 – NYG 22

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 2 at the 62
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (13:01) 38-M.Haack punts 32 yards to WAS 30, Center-59-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 5 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (11:47) 10-T.Way punts 56 yards to NYG 9, Center-69-T.Ott. 87-I.Smith-Marsette to NYG 18 for 9 yards (57-N.Bellore). PENALTY on NYG-45-T.Fox, Illegal Blindside Block, 7 yards, enforced at NYG 15.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 1 at the 12
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 96%

    (7:32) (No Huddle) 73-T.Scott reported in as eligible. 5-J.Daniels scrambles right end pushed ob at NYG 6 for 6 yards (41-M.McFadden).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 8 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (5:30) 38-M.Haack punts 60 yards to WAS 5, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 14-O.Zaccheaus ran ob at WAS 13 for 8 yards (49-M.Adams).

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 1 at the 35
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72% p(FG) 69%

    (1:20) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 30-A.Ekeler up the middle to NYG 34 for 1 yard (41-M.McFadden, 96-A.Watts). The Replay Official reviewed the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 8 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (14:16) 10-T.Way punts 53 yards to NYG 15, Center-69-T.Ott. 87-I.Smith-Marsette to NYG 21 for 6 yards (35-P.Butler; 57-N.Bellore).

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 1 at the 55
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70%

    (12:09) 8-D.Jones left guard to NYG 47 for 2 yards (6-D.Fowler).

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 2 at the 29
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 81%

    (8:41) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short left to 1-M.Nabers to WAS 27 for 2 yards (25-B.St-Juste).

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 11 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 96%

    (5:31) 99-J.McAtamney 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-38-M.Haack.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 4 at the 13
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 96%

    (:36) 3-A.Seibert 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 2 at the 2 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.57 EP
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 99%

    (3:49) 3-A.Seibert 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.