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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 55

New York Giants 7 – Washington Commanders 21

What Actually Happened

(12:09) 8-D.Jones left guard to NYG 47 for 2 yards (6-D.Fowler).

The Three Options

GO +1.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.78 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 55, worth -2.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.59 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 16, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model