4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 35

Washington Commanders 14 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(1:20) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 30-A.Ekeler up the middle to NYG 34 for 1 yard (41-M.McFadden, 96-A.Watts). The Replay Official reviewed the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

The Three Options

GO +2.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.63 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 35, worth -1.52 EP
KICK +0.54 EP
  • 69% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 45, worth -2.26 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model