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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 2

Washington Commanders 24 – New York Giants 16

What Actually Happened

(3:49) 3-A.Seibert 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +3.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.77 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 2, worth +0.09 EP
KICK +1.79 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -0.74 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.57 EP