4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
PIT Away

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
@
LV Home

Las Vegas Raiders

HC Antonio Pierce
Sunday 2024-10-13 · 16:05 Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas US 🏟 Dome Spread -3.5 O/U 36.5

Win Probability

PIT
50.2%
LV
49.8%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LV offense: -0.075 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • PIT defense: -0.075 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • PIT offense: -0.023 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
  • QB edge to PIT: Aidan O'Connell (LV) -0.016 vs Justin Fields (PIT) -0.014 EPA/dropback (LV starting Aidan O'Connell in place of Gardner Minshew)

Predicted Final Score

PIT 23
–
LV 22
Projected margin: PIT by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

PIT

Nick Herbig LB Out Hamstring
Damontae Kazee S Out Ankle
DeMarvin Leal DE Out Neck
Cordarrelle Patterson RB Out Ankle
Alex Highsmith LB Out Groin
MyCole Pruitt TE Out Knee
Jaylen Warren RB Questionable Knee

LV

Davante Adams WR Out Hamstring
Michael Mayer TE Out Not injury related - personal matter
Tommy Eichenberg LB Questionable Hamstring
Trey Taylor S Questionable Knee
Jakobi Meyers WR Questionable Ankle
Thayer Munford T Questionable Knee
Jackson Powers-Johnson G Questionable Knee
Zamir White RB Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PIT 32
–
LV 13

Prediction missed by 18 pts on margin, 0 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:24 FG PIT (10:24) 9-C.Boswell 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman. PIT 3 – LV 0
  • Q1 04:28 TD LV (4:28) (Shotgun) 22-A.Mattison up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 3 – LV 6
  • Q2 12:17 FG PIT (12:17) 9-C.Boswell 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman. PIT 6 – LV 7
  • Q2 00:40 TD PIT (:40) 74-S.Anderson reported in as eligible. 2-J.Fields scrambles left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 12 – LV 7
  • Q3 09:24 FG PIT (9:24) 9-C.Boswell 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman. PIT 15 – LV 7
  • Q3 04:33 TD PIT (4:33) 22-N.Harris left end for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 21 – LV 7
  • Q4 08:21 TD PIT (8:21) 2-J.Fields left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 28 – LV 7
  • Q4 04:59 TD LV (4:59) (Shotgun) 12-A.O'Connell pass short right to 83-K.Wilkerson for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 29 – LV 13
  • Q4 03:59 FG PIT (3:59) 9-C.Boswell 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman. PIT 32 – LV 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 7 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 75%

    (10:24) 9-C.Boswell 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 12 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (2:57) 8-C.Waitman punts 47 yards to LV 25, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 8-A.Abdullah pushed ob at LV 25 for no gain (38-T.Edmunds).

  • Q1 LV 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (1:18) 6-A.Cole punts 43 yards to PIT 26, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 10 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 80%

    (12:17) 9-C.Boswell 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 1 at the 61
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.48 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (10:33) 6-A.Cole punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Touchback.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 1 at the 3
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 99%

    (:40) 74-S.Anderson reported in as eligible. 2-J.Fields scrambles left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 3 at the 52
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.50 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 32%

    (:04) (Shotgun) 12-A.O'Connell pass incomplete deep left.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 17 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (11:07) 6-A.Cole punt is BLOCKED by 49-J.Moon, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, recovered by LV-29-C.Smith at LV 13. 29-C.Smith to LV 9 for -4 yards (31-B.Bishop).

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 19 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 93%

    (9:24) 9-C.Boswell 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 6 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (7:48) 6-A.Cole punts 66 yards to end zone, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Touchback.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 11 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (9:25) 8-C.Waitman punts 43 yards to LV 13, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 8-A.Abdullah MUFFS catch, and recovers at LV 13.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 2 at the 9 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 97%

    (4:59) (Shotgun) 12-A.O'Connell pass short right to 83-K.Wilkerson for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 18 at the 18 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 94%

    (3:59) 9-C.Boswell 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 5 at the 65 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (2:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.O'Connell pass incomplete deep middle to 19-D.Turner (48-A.Ogundeji).