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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 7 at the 34

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(10:24) 9-C.Boswell 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO +0.24 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.11 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 34, worth -1.97 EP
KICK +0.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.28 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 44, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model