Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 69

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

(1:18) 6-A.Cole punts 43 yards to PIT 26, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.96 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.96 EP
52% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 69, worth -3.69 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model