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4-2 HC Sean McDermott
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New York Jets

2-4 HC Robert Saleh
Monday 2024-10-14 · 20:15 ET MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear Spread -1.0 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

BUF
55.0%
NYJ
45.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: coin flip Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • BUF offense: +0.122 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • NYJ defense: -0.193 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • NYJ offense: -0.131 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • Josh Allen (BUF): +0.127 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • BUF defense: -0.022 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (13th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

BUF 22 15–29
–
NYJ 19 12–26
Projected margin: BUF by 3 Projected total: 41

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 6

BUF

Ed Oliver DT Out Hamstring
Darrynton Evans RB Out Hamstring
James Cook RB Questionable Toe
Taron Johnson CB Questionable Forearm
Austin Johnson DT Questionable Oblique
Khalil Shakir WR Questionable Ankle

NYJ

Michael Carter CB Out Back
Tyler Conklin TE Questionable Hip
C.J. Mosley LB Questionable Toe

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BUF 23
–
NYJ 20

Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:09 FG NYJ (11:09) 9-G.Zuerlein 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead. BUF 0 – NYJ 3
  • Q1 06:16 TD BUF (6:16) (No Huddle) 17-J.Allen left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 6 – NYJ 3
  • Q1 02:06 TD NYJ (2:06) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 5-G.Wilson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 7 – NYJ 9
  • Q2 06:58 TD BUF (6:58) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 13-M.Hollins for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 13 – NYJ 10
  • Q2 00:27 TD BUF (:27) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 88-D.Knox for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 19 – NYJ 10
  • Q2 00:08 TD NYJ (:08) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 10-A.Lazard for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 20 – NYJ 16
  • Q3 06:17 FG NYJ (6:17) 9-G.Zuerlein 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead. BUF 20 – NYJ 20
  • Q4 03:46 FG BUF (3:46) 2-T.Bass 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. PENALTY on NYJ-54-J.Kinlaw, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. BUF 23 – NYJ 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 94%

    (11:09) 9-G.Zuerlein 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 BUF 4th & 2 at the 62
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (:32) 8-S.Martin punts 62 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 14 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (12:14) 6-T.Morstead punts 45 yards to BUF 20, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 29-B.Codrington. PENALTY on BUF-5-K.Elam, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 20.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 BUF 4th & 10 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 78%

    (11:11) 2-T.Bass 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 98%

    (6:17) 9-G.Zuerlein 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 BUF 4th & 6 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (4:33) 8-S.Martin punts 40 yards to NYJ 26, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 82-X.Gipson.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 12 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 95%

    (:59) 9-G.Zuerlein 32 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 BUF 4th & 15 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (14:19) 8-S.Martin punts 57 yards to NYJ 26, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 82-X.Gipson to NYJ 34 for 8 yards (85-Q.Morris).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 85%

    (9:47) 9-G.Zuerlein 43 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 BUF 4th & 3 at the 3 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 98%

    (3:46) 2-T.Bass 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. PENALTY on NYJ-54-J.Kinlaw, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

    See the full breakdown →