Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 14 at the 65

New York Jets 10 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(12:14) 6-T.Morstead punts 45 yards to BUF 20, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 29-B.Codrington. PENALTY on BUF-5-K.Elam, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 20.

The Three Options

GO -1.71 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.97 EP
72% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 65, worth -3.51 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model