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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 12 at the 14

New York Jets 20 – Buffalo Bills 20

What Actually Happened

(:59) 9-G.Zuerlein 32 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +1.76 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.20 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 14, worth +0.30 EP
KICK +2.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24, worth -0.48 EP
PUNT +0.51 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model