Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 15 at the 83

Buffalo Bills 20 – New York Jets 20

(14:19) 8-S.Martin punts 57 yards to NYJ 26, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 82-X.Gipson to NYJ 34 for 8 yards (85-Q.Morris).

The Three Options

GO -3.11 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +0.89 EP
69% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 83, worth -4.91 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model