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Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
@
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Cincinnati Bengals

HC Zac Taylor
Sunday 2024-10-06 · 13:00 Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati US ☀️ Clear Spread -2.5 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

BAL
53.9%
CIN
46.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BAL offense: +0.095 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • CIN defense: +0.081 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • CIN offense: +0.060 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
  • BAL defense: -0.065 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • QB edge to BAL: Joe Burrow (CIN) +0.105 vs Lamar Jackson (BAL) +0.175 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

BAL 24
–
CIN 22
Projected margin: BAL by 2 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

BAL

Arthur Maulet CB Out Knee
Rasheen Ali RB Questionable Neck
Deonte Harty WR Questionable Knee
Andrew Vorhees G Questionable Ankle

CIN

Sheldon Rankins DT Doubtful Hamstring
Mike Hilton CB Questionable Knee
McKinnley Jackson DT Questionable Knee
Myles Murphy DE Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BAL 41
–
CIN 38

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 33 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:59 TD BAL (8:59) 66-B.Cleveland reported in as eligible. 22-D.Henry right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 6 – CIN 0
  • Q2 13:47 TD CIN (13:47) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 5-T.Higgins for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 7 – CIN 6
  • Q2 08:16 TD BAL (8:16) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 7-R.Bateman for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN [22-G.Stone]. BAL 13 – CIN 7
  • Q2 05:52 SAF CIN (5:52) 22-D.Henry right tackle tackled in End Zone for -2 yards, SAFETY (94-S.Hubbard). ** Injury Update: BAL-70-R.Rosengarten has returned to the game. BAL 14 – CIN 9
  • Q2 00:15 TD CIN (:15) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 1-J.Chase for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on BAL-92-N.Madubuike, Roughing the Passer, 1 yard, enforced between downs. BAL 14 – CIN 15
  • Q3 08:53 TD CIN (8:53) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 5-T.Higgins for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 14 – CIN 23
  • Q3 06:41 TD BAL (6:41) 66-B.Cleveland reported in as eligible. 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 80-I.Likely for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 20 – CIN 24
  • Q4 14:23 TD CIN (14:23) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 30-C.Brown for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 21 – CIN 30
  • Q4 09:11 TD BAL (9:11) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 88-C.Kolar for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 27 – CIN 31
  • Q4 09:05 TD CIN (9:05) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 1-J.Chase for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 28 – CIN 37
  • Q4 05:36 TD BAL (5:36) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson to CIN 12 for -6 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at CIN 12. 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 80-I.Likely for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN [57-G.Pratt]. BAL 34 – CIN 38
  • Q4 01:40 FG BAL (1:40) 9-J.Tucker 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. BAL 38 – CIN 38
  • Q5 03:36 FG BAL (3:36) 9-J.Tucker 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. BAL 41 – CIN 38

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 1 at the 61
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (6:46) 8-R.Rehkow punts 45 yards to BAL 16, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 16-T.Wallace.

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 7 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 28%

    (3:36) 11-J.Stout punts 36 yards to CIN 14, Center-46-N.Moore, out of bounds.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 5 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (12:11) 11-J.Stout punts 65 yards to end zone, Center-46-N.Moore, Touchback.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 17 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (11:18) 8-R.Rehkow punts 49 yards to BAL 38, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 16-T.Wallace to BAL 49 for 11 yards (27-J.Battle).

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 8 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (6:03) 8-R.Rehkow punts 66 yards to BAL 2, impetus ends at BAL 2, Center-48-C.Adomitis, downed by CIN-26-T.Anderson.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 5 at the 50
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 28%

    (3:30) 8-R.Rehkow punts 36 yards to BAL 14, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 16-T.Wallace.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 1 at the 77
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 75%

    (1:54) Direct snap to 88-C.Kolar. 88-C.Kolar right guard to BAL 25 for 2 yards (55-L.Wilson; 92-B.Hill).

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (:44) 11-J.Stout punts 67 yards to CIN 8, Center-46-N.Moore. 15-C.Jones to CIN 21 for 13 yards (2-N.Wiggins).

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 6 at the 38 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 59%

    (1:40) 9-J.Tucker 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 8 at the 68 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (:09) 8-R.Rehkow punts 57 yards to BAL 11, Center-48-C.Adomitis, out of bounds.