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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 77

Baltimore Ravens 14 – Cincinnati Bengals 9

What Actually Happened

(1:54) Direct snap to 88-C.Kolar. 88-C.Kolar right guard to BAL 25 for 2 yards (55-L.Wilson; 92-B.Hill).

The Three Options

GO -0.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.91 EP
  • 25% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 77, worth -4.43 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.73 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 34, worth -1.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model