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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 61

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(6:46) 8-R.Rehkow punts 45 yards to BAL 16, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 16-T.Wallace.

The Three Options

GO +0.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.34 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 61, worth -3.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.27 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 20, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EP