Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 10 at the 75

Baltimore Ravens 14 – Cincinnati Bengals 9

(:44) 11-J.Stout punts 67 yards to CIN 8, Center-46-N.Moore. 15-C.Jones to CIN 21 for 13 yards (2-N.Wiggins).

The Three Options

GO -2.05 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.02 EP
61% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 75, worth -4.00 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model