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Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
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Miami Dolphins

HC Mike McDaniel
Thursday 2024-09-12 · 20:15 Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens US 🌧 Rain Spread 2.5 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

BUF
51.1%
MIA
48.9%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BUF offense: +0.098 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • QB edge to BUF: Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) +0.096 vs Josh Allen (BUF) +0.113 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

BUF 25
–
MIA 23
Projected margin: BUF by 2 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

BUF

Taron Johnson CB Out Forearm
Dawuane Smoot DE Out Toe
Javon Solomon DE Doubtful Oblique

MIA

Raheem Mostert RB Out Chest
Malik Washington WR Out Quadricep
Devon Achane RB Questionable Ankle
Elijah Campbell S Questionable Achilles

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BUF 31
–
MIA 10

Prediction missed by 19 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:55 TD BUF (9:55) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 4-J.Cook for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 6 – MIA 0
  • Q1 03:28 TD MIA (3:28) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 28-D.Achane for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 7 – MIA 6
  • Q2 12:45 FG BUF (12:45) 2-T.Bass 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. BUF 10 – MIA 7
  • Q2 06:28 TD BUF (6:28) 4-J.Cook left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 16 – MIA 7
  • Q2 03:45 TD BUF (3:45) 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 4-J.Cook up the middle for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 23 – MIA 7
  • Q2 00:08 FG MIA (:08) 7-J.Sanders 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey. BUF 24 – MIA 10
  • Q3 09:37 TD BUF (9:37) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left INTERCEPTED by 46-J.Ingram [57-A.Epenesa] at MIA 31. 46-J.Ingram for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 30 – MIA 10

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 3 at the 17
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 94%

    (9:55) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 4-J.Cook for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 1 at the 61
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.29 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (2:07) 8-S.Martin punts 45 yards to MIA 16, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 0-B.Berrios.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 7 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 87%

    (12:45) 2-T.Bass 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 3 at the 63
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (11:02) 16-J.Bailey punts 48 yards to BUF 15, Center-48-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 29-B.Codrington.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 2 at the 45
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 46%

    (3:50) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa sacked at MIA 49 for -6 yards (91-E.Oliver).

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 7 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 34%

    (12:17) 8-S.Martin punts 39 yards to MIA 11, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 0-B.Berrios.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 4 at the 13
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 96%

    (4:36) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa scrambles up the middle to BUF 7 for 6 yards (3-D.Hamlin). MIA-1-T.Tagovailoa was injured during the play.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 8 at the 8
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 98%

    (2:43) (Shotgun) 19-S.Thompson sacked at BUF 15 for -7 yards (40-V.Miller).

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 2 at the 65
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (14:23) 8-S.Martin punts 65 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 9 at the 63
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (11:55) (Shotgun) 19-S.Thompson scrambles left end to MIA 41 for 4 yards (50-G.Rousseau).

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 11 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 85%

    (7:59) 2-T.Bass 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 2 at the 11 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 97%

    (2:08) (Shotgun) 19-S.Thompson pass incomplete short left to 84-R.Chosen (24-C.Bishop) [98-A.Johnson].