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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 3 at the 17

Buffalo Bills 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(9:55) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 4-J.Cook for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +1.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.99 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 17, worth -1.09 EP
KICK +0.97 EP
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.13 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 27, worth -1.61 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model