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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 61

Buffalo Bills 7 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(2:07) 8-S.Martin punts 45 yards to MIA 16, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 0-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO +0.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.46 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 61, worth -3.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -1.20 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 20, worth -1.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.29 EP