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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 7 at the 25

Buffalo Bills 7 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(12:45) 2-T.Bass 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.78 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.53 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25, worth -1.46 EP
KICK +0.77 EP
What Happened
  • 87% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.20 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 35, worth -2.24 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model