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Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
@
MIA Home

Miami Dolphins

HC Mike McDaniel
Sunday 2024-01-07 · 20:20 Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens US ☀️ Clear Spread -2.5 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

BUF
43.5%
MIA
56.5%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • MIA defense: -0.100 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • BUF offense: +0.047 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • BUF defense: -0.104 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • QB edge to MIA: Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) +0.143 vs Josh Allen (BUF) +0.116 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

BUF 24
–
MIA 25
Projected margin: MIA by 1 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 18

BUF

Mitch Morse C Questionable Illness

MIA

Bradley Chubb LB Out Knee
Xavien Howard CB Out Foot
Jevon Holland S Questionable Knee
Jerome Baker LB Questionable Knee
Raheem Mostert RB Questionable Knee
Jaylen Waddle WR Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BUF 21
–
MIA 14

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 08:58 TD MIA (8:58) (Shotgun) 28-D.Achane right end for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 0 – MIA 6
  • Q2 04:36 TD BUF (4:36) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 16-T.Sherfield for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 6 – MIA 7
  • Q2 01:46 TD MIA (1:46) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 10-T.Hill for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 7 – MIA 13
  • Q4 14:02 TD BUF (14:02) 16-J.Bailey punts 58 yards to BUF 4, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 11-D.Harty for 96 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA-53-C.Goode was injured during the play. He is Out. BUF 13 – MIA 14
  • Q4 07:21 TD BUF (7:21) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 88-D.Knox for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 20 – MIA 14

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 8 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 40%

    (2:35) 16-J.Bailey punts 35 yards to BUF 11, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 11-D.Harty.

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 2 at the 35
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 68%

    (:22) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle intended for 13-G.Davis INTERCEPTED by 21-D.Elliott [92-Z.Sieler] at MIA -7. Touchback.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 13 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (10:02) 8-S.Martin punts 41 yards to MIA 15, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 0-B.Berrios.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 1 at the 76
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (7:53) 16-J.Bailey punts 52 yards to BUF 24, Center-44-B.Ferguson, out of bounds.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 14 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (14:02) 16-J.Bailey punts 58 yards to BUF 4, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 11-D.Harty for 96 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA-53-C.Goode was injured during the play. He is Out.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (12:17) 16-J.Bailey punts 48 yards to BUF 26, Center-44-B.Ferguson, downed by MIA-30-A.Ingold.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (6:22) 16-J.Bailey punts 46 yards to BUF 26, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 11-D.Harty.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 1 at the 65 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (4:05) 17-J.Allen up the middle to BUF 37 for 2 yards (9-M.Ingram).

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 1 at the 37 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 64%

    (2:00) 76-D.Edwards reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen up the middle to MIA 37 for no gain (51-D.Long; 91-E.Ogbah).