Win Probability
Confidence: coin flip Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- MIA offense: +0.019 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
- BUF offense: +0.047 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
- BUF defense: -0.104 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
- QB edge to MIA: Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) +0.143 vs Josh Allen (BUF) +0.116 EPA/dropback
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Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 18
BUF
MIA
Pulled fresh for 2023 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q2 08:58 TD MIA (8:58) (Shotgun) 28-D.Achane right end for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 0 – MIA 6
- Q2 04:36 TD BUF (4:36) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 16-T.Sherfield for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 6 – MIA 7
- Q2 01:46 TD MIA (1:46) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 10-T.Hill for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 7 – MIA 13
- Q4 14:02 TD BUF (14:02) 16-J.Bailey punts 58 yards to BUF 4, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 11-D.Harty for 96 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA-53-C.Goode was injured during the play. He is Out. BUF 13 – MIA 14
- Q4 07:21 TD BUF (7:21) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 88-D.Knox for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 20 – MIA 14
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 MIA 4th & 8 at the 46Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 40%
(2:35) 16-J.Bailey punts 35 yards to BUF 11, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 11-D.Harty.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 BUF 4th & 2 at the 35Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 57% p(FG) 68%
(:22) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle intended for 13-G.Davis INTERCEPTED by 21-D.Elliott [92-Z.Sieler] at MIA -7. Touchback.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 BUF 4th & 13 at the 56Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(10:02) 8-S.Martin punts 41 yards to MIA 15, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 0-B.Berrios.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 MIA 4th & 1 at the 76Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EPp(convert) 72%
(7:53) 16-J.Bailey punts 52 yards to BUF 24, Center-44-B.Ferguson, out of bounds.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 MIA 4th & 14 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(14:02) 16-J.Bailey punts 58 yards to BUF 4, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 11-D.Harty for 96 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA-53-C.Goode was injured during the play. He is Out.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 MIA 4th & 9 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(12:17) 16-J.Bailey punts 48 yards to BUF 26, Center-44-B.Ferguson, downed by MIA-30-A.Ingold.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 MIA 4th & 7 at the 72Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(6:22) 16-J.Bailey punts 46 yards to BUF 26, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 11-D.Harty.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 BUF 4th & 1 at the 65 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 72%
(4:05) 17-J.Allen up the middle to BUF 37 for 2 yards (9-M.Ingram).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 BUF 4th & 1 at the 37 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 64%
(2:00) 76-D.Edwards reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen up the middle to MIA 37 for no gain (51-D.Long; 91-E.Ogbah).
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