Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 13 at the 56

Buffalo Bills 7 – Miami Dolphins 14

(10:02) 8-S.Martin punts 41 yards to MIA 15, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 0-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO -1.27 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.07 EP
70% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 56, worth -3.10 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model