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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 65

Buffalo Bills 21 – Miami Dolphins 14

What Actually Happened

(4:05) 17-J.Allen up the middle to BUF 37 for 2 yards (9-M.Ingram).

The Three Options

GO -0.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.17 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 65, worth -3.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.67 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 23, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model