Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 14 at the 62

Miami Dolphins 14 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(14:02) 16-J.Bailey punts 58 yards to BUF 4, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 11-D.Harty for 96 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA-53-C.Goode was injured during the play. He is Out.

The Three Options

GO -1.57 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.78 EP
71% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 62, worth -3.33 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model