SF @ MIN — 4th & Data

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HC Kyle Shanahan

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Minnesota Vikings

HC Kevin O'Connell

Monday 2023-10-23 · 20:15 U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread -7.0 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

56.5%

MIN

43.5%

🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

SF offense: +0.080 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
Brock Purdy (SF): +0.318 EPA/dropback in prior starts
SF defense: -0.132 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
Indoors — weather neutralised
MIN offense: +0.020 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

SF 25

–

MIN 24

Projected margin: SF by 1 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

SF

Deebo Samuel WR Out Shoulder

Trent Williams T Doubtful Ankle

Dre Greenlaw LB Questionable Hamstring

Christian McCaffrey RB Questionable Oblique

MIN

Ezra Cleveland G Out Foot

Akayleb Evans CB Questionable Oblique

Jalen Nailor WR Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SF 17

–

MIN 22

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 04:52 TD MIN (4:52) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 3-J.Addison for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 0 – MIN 6
Q2 07:36 FG MIN (7:36) 1-G.Joseph 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright. SF 0 – MIN 10
Q2 01:04 TD SF (1:04) 23-C.McCaffrey up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 6 – MIN 10
Q2 00:16 TD MIN (:16) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 3-J.Addison for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 7 – MIN 16
Q3 07:02 FG MIN (7:02) 1-G.Joseph 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright. SF 7 – MIN 19
Q3 06:02 TD SF (6:02) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 23-C.McCaffrey for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 13 – MIN 19
Q3 00:24 FG MIN (:24) 1-G.Joseph 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright. SF 14 – MIN 22
Q4 13:26 FG SF (13:26) 4-J.Moody 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. SF 17 – MIN 22

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q2 SF 4th & 5 at the 22

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 42% p(FG) 91%

(14:57) 4-J.Moody 40 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.
Q2 MIN 4th & 3 at the 3

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.96 EP

p(convert) 46% p(FG) 99%

(7:36) 1-G.Joseph 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.
Q3 MIN 4th & 2 at the 2

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.43 EP

p(convert) 52% p(FG) 99%

(7:02) 1-G.Joseph 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.
Q3 MIN 4th & 5 at the 36

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 41% p(FG) 70%

(:24) 1-G.Joseph 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.
Q4 SF 4th & 6 at the 37

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 41% p(FG) 68%

(13:26) 4-J.Moody 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.
Q4 MIN 4th & 4 at the 42

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP

p(convert) 46% p(FG) 56%

(9:22) 14-R.Wright punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-42-A.DePaola, Touchback.
Q4 SF 4th & 1 at the 51

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 72% p(FG) 33%

(6:18) 13-B.Purdy up the middle to MIN 49 for 2 yards (97-H.Phillips; 94-D.Lowry).
Q4 MIN 4th & 6 at the 32 late-game

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 38% p(FG) 78%

(1:16) 1-G.Joseph 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.