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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 6 at the 32

Minnesota Vikings 22 – San Francisco 49ers 17

What Actually Happened

(1:16) 1-G.Joseph 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO -0.09 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +1.22 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 32, worth -0.88 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.26 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 42, worth -1.26 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model