4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 3 at the 3

Minnesota Vikings 7 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(7:36) 1-G.Joseph 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +2.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.81 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 3, worth +0.21 EP
KICK +1.80 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.92 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.96 EP