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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 2

Minnesota Vikings 16 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(7:02) 1-G.Joseph 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +3.94 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.52 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 2, worth +1.12 EP
KICK +2.51 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.55 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.19 EP
PUNT +0.55 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.43 EP