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Washington Commanders

HC Ron Rivera
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Philadelphia Eagles

HC Nick Sirianni
Sunday 2023-10-01 · 13:00 Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia US ☀️ Clear Spread 9.5 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

WAS
22.8%
PHI
77.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • WAS offense: -0.139 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • Sam Howell (WAS): -0.286 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • PHI defense: -0.102 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • PHI offense: +0.028 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

WAS 17
–
PHI 26
Projected margin: PHI by 9 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

WAS

Chris Rodriguez RB Out Illness
Percy Butler S Questionable Foot

PHI

Sydney Brown S Out Hamstring
Quez Watkins WR Out Hamstring
Justin Evans S Questionable Neck

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

WAS 31
–
PHI 34

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 22 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:55 TD WAS (7:55) (Shotgun) 4-C.Samuel left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 6 – PHI 0
  • Q1 01:20 TD PHI (1:20) (Shotgun) 0-D.Swift left guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 7 – PHI 6
  • Q2 13:08 TD WAS (13:08) (Shotgun) 8-B.Robinson left end to PHI 1 for no gain (41-N.Morrow; 24-J.Bradberry). FUMBLES (41-N.Morrow), recovered by WAS-17-T.McLaurin at PHI -4. TOUCHDOWN. WAS 13 – PHI 7
  • Q2 01:42 FG WAS (1:42) 6-J.Slye 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 17 – PHI 7
  • Q2 00:04 FG PHI (:04) 4-J.Elliott 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann. WAS 17 – PHI 10
  • Q3 11:43 FG PHI (11:43) 4-J.Elliott 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann. WAS 17 – PHI 13
  • Q3 07:24 TD PHI (7:24) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left to 11-A.Brown for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on WAS-90-M.Sweat, Roughing the Passer, 1 yard, enforced between downs. WAS 17 – PHI 19
  • Q4 14:17 FG PHI (14:17) 4-J.Elliott 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann. WAS 17 – PHI 24
  • Q4 08:07 TD WAS (8:07) 8-B.Robinson left guard for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 23 – PHI 24
  • Q4 01:49 TD PHI (1:49) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 11-A.Brown for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on PHI-11-A.Brown, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs. WAS 24 – PHI 30
  • Q4 00:02 TD WAS (:02) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short right to 1-J.Dotson for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 30 – PHI 31
  • Q5 04:04 FG PHI (4:04) 4-J.Elliott 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann. WAS 31 – PHI 34

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 1 at the 15
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 95%

    (10:26) 8-B.Robinson left guard to PHI 13 for 2 yards (52-Z.Cunningham; 98-J.Carter).

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 5 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP
    p(convert) 45%

    (10:21) 10-B.Mann punts 34 yards to WAS 21, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 83-J.Crowder.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 16 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (8:05) 5-T.Way punts 49 yards to PHI 36, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 18-B.Covey to PHI 43 for 7 yards (20-J.Martin, 51-D.Mayo).

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 13 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (6:17) 10-B.Mann punts 48 yards to WAS 12, Center-45-R.Lovato. 83-J.Crowder to WAS 26 for 14 yards (26-T.Edmunds).

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 9 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 97%

    (1:42) 6-J.Slye 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (1:05) (No Huddle) 1-J.Hurts left end to PHI 37 for 3 yards (31-K.Curl).

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 3 at the 30
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 78%

    (11:43) 4-J.Elliott 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 4 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (9:31) 5-T.Way punts 38 yards to PHI 26, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 9 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (4:25) 5-T.Way punts 43 yards to PHI 20, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 18-B.Covey to PHI 31 for 11 yards (85-C.Turner, 20-J.Martin).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 13 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 93%

    (14:17) 4-J.Elliott 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 13 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (6:35) 10-B.Mann punts 47 yards to WAS 7, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 83-J.Crowder.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 17 at the 77 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (3:31) 5-T.Way punts 54 yards to PHI 23, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 18-B.Covey to PHI 43 for 20 yards (39-J.Reaves; 38-D.Gore).

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 2 at the 45 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 42%

    (:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short right to 2-D.Brown pushed ob at PHI 29 for 16 yards (2-D.Slay). Penalty on PHI-28-J.Jobe, Defensive Holding, declined.