Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 17 at the 77

Washington Commanders 24 – Philadelphia Eagles 24

(3:31) 5-T.Way punts 54 yards to PHI 23, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 18-B.Covey to PHI 43 for 20 yards (39-J.Reaves; 38-D.Gore).

The Three Options

GO -2.69 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.40 EP
74% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 77, worth -4.08 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model