Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 13 at the 54

Philadelphia Eagles 24 – Washington Commanders 24

(6:35) 10-B.Mann punts 47 yards to WAS 7, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 83-J.Crowder.

The Three Options

GO -0.91 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.81 EP
70% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 54, worth -2.48 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model