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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 13 at the 18

Philadelphia Eagles 21 – Washington Commanders 17

What Actually Happened

(14:17) 4-J.Elliott 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +1.42 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.78 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 18, worth -0.09 EP
KICK +2.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.51 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 28, worth -0.78 EP
PUNT +0.50 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model