4TH&DATA
EN ES
Home
SF Away

San Francisco 49ers

12-4 HC Kyle Shanahan
@
LV Home

Las Vegas Raiders

6-10 HC Josh McDaniels
Sunday 2023-01-01 · 16:05 ET Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas US 🏟 Dome Spread -10.0 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

SF
69.4%
LV
30.6%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • SF offense: +0.149 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • QB edge to SF: Jarrett Stidham (LV) -0.135 vs Brock Purdy (SF) +0.200 EPA/dropback (LV starting Jarrett Stidham in place of Derek Carr)
  • SF defense: -0.200 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • LV defense: +0.036 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

SF 26 19–33
–
LV 20 13–27
Projected margin: SF by 6 Projected total: 46

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 17

SF

Jimmy Garoppolo QB Out Foot
Kevin Givens DT Out Knee
Deebo Samuel WR Out Ankle
Kerry Hyder DE Questionable Ankle
Ambry Thomas CB Questionable Ankle

LV

Jackson Barton T Questionable Back
Zamir White RB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SF 37
–
LV 34

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 25 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:45 TD LV (11:45) 77-T.Munford reported in as eligible. 3-J.Stidham pass deep right to 83-D.Waller for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 0 – LV 6
  • Q1 07:09 TD SF (7:09) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 11-B.Aiyuk for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 6 – LV 7
  • Q1 01:49 FG LV (1:49) 2-D.Carlson 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. SF 7 – LV 10
  • Q2 09:45 TD SF (9:45) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 85-G.Kittle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 13 – LV 10
  • Q2 00:15 TD LV (:15) (Shotgun) 3-J.Stidham pass short left to 17-D.Adams for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 14 – LV 16
  • Q3 10:34 TD LV (10:34) (Shotgun) 3-J.Stidham pass deep left to 17-D.Adams for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN [29-T.Hufanga]. Penalty on SF-7-C.Ward, Illegal Contact, declined. SF 14 – LV 23
  • Q3 05:28 TD SF (5:28) 23-C.McCaffrey right end for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 20 – LV 24
  • Q4 12:39 FG SF (12:39) 9-R.Gould 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. SF 24 – LV 24
  • Q4 06:48 FG SF (6:48) 9-R.Gould 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. SF 27 – LV 24
  • Q4 04:13 FG LV (4:13) 2-D.Carlson 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. SF 27 – LV 27
  • Q4 02:23 TD SF (2:23) 24-J.Mason left end for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 33 – LV 27
  • Q4 01:14 TD LV (1:14) 77-T.Munford reported in as eligible. 28-J.Jacobs left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SF 34 – LV 33
  • Q5 06:57 FG SF (6:57) 9-R.Gould 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. SF 37 – LV 34

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LV 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.90 EP
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 99%

    (1:49) 2-D.Carlson 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 LV 4th & 1 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 99%

    (4:33) 77-T.Munford reported in as eligible. 28-J.Jacobs left guard to SF 2 for no gain (96-T.McGill; 91-A.Armstead).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 SF 4th & 5 at the 93
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (2:40) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 37 yards to SF 44, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 13-H.Renfrow.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 SF 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (13:23) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 56 yards to LV 16, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 13-H.Renfrow.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 LV 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (4:09) 6-A.Cole punts 52 yards to SF 14, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 3-R.McCloud.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 SF 4th & 7 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 87%

    (12:39) 9-R.Gould 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 LV 4th & 11 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (9:49) 6-A.Cole punts 29 yards to SF 35, Center-47-T.Sieg, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 SF 4th & 4 at the 6
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 98%

    (6:48) 9-R.Gould 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 LV 4th & 10 at the 39 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 62%

    (4:13) 2-D.Carlson 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

    See the full breakdown →